It's possible that we will never see prices as low as 1523 and 26.14 in gold and silver again. I believe that they will spend 2012 moving back toward their all-time highs, and then in 2013-2016 they will start making huge moves upward.
If they do fall from here for whatever reason, the first target would be 1480 and 24. Below there, look out for 1250 and 17. But I now consider those prices extremely unlikely. 26 was the price to start buying silver if you wanted to buy.
What happened is that back around October 2010, gold and silver were due for a reasonably large correction because they had reached the end of wave III-1-v. But wave v just kept extending, especially in silver, mainly because of QE2. What we've been experiencing in late 2011 is the long overdue significant correction, and that is why sentiment is so low.
Disclosure: Long physical gold/silver.
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ReplyDelete26 Feb 2006 - 4 Jan 2012.
ReplyDeleteThank you again for such valuable update! You help me to save up many hours of analysis in my time chart (again).
ReplyDeleteI will have some updated charts up soon. I again wish to warn that we need to see gold rise above the downtrend line in order to confirm another move upward. If gold falls below 1500, it could drop all the way to 1250. And obviously such a move down would be even worse for silver (targeting 17 or 18).
ReplyDeleteBut banks will not sit around and do nothing while a depression happens. Sooner or later, THEY WILL PRINT.
Back in my market, future call options for Feb 2012 indicate a drop from present spot price to 1,488 is possible. Looks like you are right agian. We have to watch that closely.
ReplyDeleteWithin the next two weeks, gold might climb back to 1680. But can it break through there? The FOMC meeting is on 25 January. I'm worried that it won't breakthrough, and it could fall hard if there's more 'deflation panic.' However I still feel fine about the long-term (5 years) for gold and silver.
ReplyDeleteMore specific warning: I think that if gold falls below 1500, it might collapse straight through the 1400s and settle down near 1325. Silver would fall to about 20. I'm not saying it will happen, but it is possible.
ReplyDelete