1. Cameron Newton (Auburn): 1st round, 1st pick
2. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada): 2nd round
3. Jake Locker (Washington): 2nd round
4. Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech): 2nd round
5. Andy Dalton (Texas Christian): 3rd round
6. Greg McElroy (Alabama): 4th round
7. Pat Devlin (Delaware): 5th round
8. Scott Tolzien (Wisconsin): 5th round
9. Christian Ponder (Florida State): 7th round
10. Blaine Gabbert (Missouri): FA
11. Ryan Mallett (Arkansas): FA
12. Ricky Stanzi (Iowa): FA
While I was perhaps slightly too harsh on Christian Ponder (because he can rush), I wouldn't change anything. Newton is awesome and Gabbert is terrible.
A lot of scouts are dimwits. Just look at Gabbert last year. People had Blaine Gabbert ahead of Cameron Newton. I said that they were all looking at his physical measurables and ignoring everything else, like the fact that he is a terrible quarterback.
My scouting is mostly intuitive. Measurables are nice but ridiculously overrated. What I'm looking for is a free-thinking individual like Cameron Newton rather than a tool of authority. I want the guys who are the cause of their team's victories. A good way to figure it out is to cross-check QB rating, team record, and defensive PPG.
Here's an alphabetical list of 2012 FBS QB prospects. I will add their 2011 QB rating (140+ is good), team record, and defensive PPG rank as well. I'll strikeout prospects upon realizing that they are not worth my time.
John Brantley (Florida) - 140.8 - 7-6 - 20th (D PPG)
Zach Collaros (Cincinnati) - 131.6 - 10-3 - 21st
Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) - 145.1 - 11-3 - 11th
Austin Davis (Southern Mississippi) - 138.2 - 12-2 - 26th
Dominique Davis (East Carolina) - 131.5 - 5-7 - 97th
Nick Foles (Arizona) - 145.6 - 4-8 - 107th
*Robert Griffin III (Baylor) - 189.5 - 10-3 - 113th
Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) - 153.0 - 11-3 - 85th
Jacory Harris (Miami FL) - 150.6 - 6-6 - 18th
Case Keenum (Houston) - 174.0 - 13-1 - 35th
G.J. Kinne (Tulsa) - 147.4 - 8-5 - 64th
Ryan Lindley (San Diego State) - 125.7 - 8-5 - 57th
Marshall Lobbestael (Washington State) - 138.3 - 4-8 - 95th
*Andrew Luck (Stanford) - 169.7 - 11-2 - 30th
J.J. McDermott (Southern Methodist) - 128.2 - 8-5 - 40th
Kellen Moore (Boise State) - 175.2 - 12-1 - 12th
*Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) - 140.5 - 6-7 - 75th
Dan Persa (Northwestern) - 154.8 - 6-7 - 66th
Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) - 133.2 - 7-6 - 70th
*Darron Thomas (Oregon) - 158.7 - 12-2 - 52nd
Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) - 159.8 - 12-1 - 63rd
Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) - 191.8 - 11-3 - 13th
What obviously sticks out is that Robert Griffin III turned Baylor into a 10-3 team even though they had an insanely horrible defense. And that is why he deserved the Heisman trophy. Others who also stick out are Chandler Harnish, Darron Thomas, and Brandon Weeden.
From here I will make an initial ranking based on instincts and 'winning' and then add more technical analysis: accuracy, sacks taken, rushing ability, size.
1. *Robert Griffin III (Baylor) - 72.4% - 27 - athlete - 6'2.
2. *Andrew Luck (Stanford) - 71.3% - 11 - scrambler - 6'4.
3. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) - 72.8% - 22 - athlete - 5'11 (short).
4. Case Keenum (Houston) - 71% - 17 - non-rusher - 6'2.
5. Kellen Moore (Boise State) - 74.3% - 7 - non-rusher - 6'0 (thin).
6. Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) - 72.3% - 12 - non-rusher - 6'4.
7. Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) - 61.7% - 7 - scrambler - 6'2.
8. *Darron Thomas (Oregon) - 62.2% - 11 - athlete - 6'3.
9. Nick Foles (Arizona) - 69.1% - 23 - non-rusher - 6'5.
10. Dan Persa (Northwestern) - 73.4% - 32 - non-rusher - 5'11 (short).
Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) - 63.7% - 15 - non-rusher - 6'3.
Austin Davis (Southern Mississippi) - 60.2% - 17 - scrambler - 6'2.
Dominique Davis (East Carolina) - 67.6% - 24 - athlete - 6'3.
Jacory Harris (Miami FL) - 65% - 17 - scrambler - 6'4 (thin).
G.J. Kinne (Tulsa) - 63.3% - 14 - scrambler - 6'2.
*Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) - 63.2% - 28 - scrambler - 6'8.
Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) - 61.6% - 9 - athlete - 6'4.
Now here's the part where I have to actually do work and try to analyze QBs fundamentally. Are they smart? Good leaders? Ugh, I already know why guys like Foles, Tannehill, and Osweiler and considered possible first-rounders: they are very tall. Dammit scouts... "He's not an NFL talent but he physically looks like he is!" Also I'm reworking the order again.
1. *Robert Griffin III (Baylor) - Only weakness is pocket awareness.
2. *Andrew Luck (Stanford) - No major weaknesses.
3. Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) - 28, arm injuries, awareness issues.
4. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) - Not tall.
5. Case Keenum (Houston) - Not big, spread offense.
6. Kellen Moore (Boise State) - Tiny.
7. Nick Foles (Arizona) - Indecisive.
8. *Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) - Tall, good height, nice lankiness, has inches others don't, very Babel-like, good ability to see over defenders, close to sky.
9. Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) - Lacking accuracy and has small hands (Alex Smith).
10. *Darron Thomas (Oregon) - Accuracy and intelligence issues.
11. Dan Persa (Northwestern) - Not tall.
12. Jacory Harris (Miami FL) - Lacking intelligence.
13. Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) - Poor awareness. Overrated.
14. Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) - All-around average.
Last season we had the year of the rushing QB. This year we have the year of the small QB. Note: Drew Brees, who won a Super Bowl and just set the single-season record for passing yards and completion percentage, is 6'0.
Xavier Cromartie's Bold 2012 QB Rankings:
1. *Robert Griffin III (Baylor) - 1st round, 1st pick.
2. *Andrew Luck (Stanford) - 1st round, 2nd pick.
3. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) - 2nd round.
4. Kellen Moore (Boise State) - 3rd round.
5. Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) - 3rd round.
6. *Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) - 3rd round.
7. *Darron Thomas (Oregon) - 4th round.
8. Case Keenum (Houston) - 4th round.
9. Nick Foles (Arizona) - 4th round.
10. Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) - 5th round.
11. Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) - 5th round.
12. Dan Persa (Northwestern) - 6th round.
13. Jacory Harris (Miami FL) - 7th round.
14. Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) - 7th round.
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